Is the energy price cap really rising 13%?
Last updated: 22 June 2026 · Figures from Ofgem, 27 May 2026
Every headline on 27 May said the same thing: the energy price cap is going up 13% from 1 July — about £18 a month more for a typical home. That number is correct. But it’s not the whole story.
On the same day, Ofgem quietly changed how it defines a “typical” home — lowering the amount of energy it assumes households use. Once you account for that, Ofgem’s own new figure for a typical annual bill rises by only £22 a year — roughly £1.83 a month. Near flat.
Both numbers are real. They answer different questions. This page explains the gap, why it exists, and — the part that actually matters — how to work out what your bill does.
Two true numbers, side by side
Here are the two figures Ofgem published for the July–September 2026 cap. Notice they start from the same place — £1,641 — and end up far apart.
| The headline (+13%) | Ofgem’s new typical bill | |
|---|---|---|
| Old typical bill (to 30 Jun) | £1,641 | £1,641 |
| New typical bill (from 1 Jul) | £1,862 | £1,663 |
| Change vs today | +£221/yr | +£22/yr |
| Per month | +£18 | +£1.83 |
| Consumption assumed | Old TDCV (higher) | New TDCV (lower) |
Source: Ofgem price cap announcement, 27 May 2026. Both columns describe the same cap rates — the only thing that differs is how much energy a “typical” home is assumed to use.
The 13% headline compares the new rates against the old consumption baseline. Ofgem’s own “new typical bill” of £1,663 applies the new rates to the new, lower baseline. The difference between them — £199 — is almost entirely the baseline change, not a change to your rates.
What is TDCV?
TDCV stands for Typical Domestic Consumption Values. It’s Ofgem’s official assumption about how much gas and electricity a typical household uses in a year. It exists for one reason: so everyone — regulators, suppliers, journalists, comparison sites — can quote a single “typical bill” figure and mean the same thing.
Crucially, TDCV is not a price. It’s a usage assumption — a number of kWh. The price cap sets the maximum rate you pay per unit. To turn that rate into a headline pounds-per-year figure, Ofgem multiplies it by the TDCV. Change the TDCV and the headline bill moves — even if not a single rate has changed.
Ofgem reviews the TDCV periodically because real usage drifts down over time: better insulation, more efficient boilers and appliances, heat-pump uptake, and people being more careful since the 2022 price spike. For this review, the assumed typical home uses roughly 7% less electricity and 17% less gas than the old baseline.
In one sentence
The cap rate went up; the assumed “typical” home got smaller at the same time — so the official typical bill barely moved, while the “like a typical home would have paid” figure jumped 13%.
Why the headline and a real bill diverge
Your bill doesn’t care what Ofgem assumes a typical home uses. It’s worked out from two things only:
- the rates you’re charged (capped if you’re on a standard tariff), and
- how many units you actually use.
So the +13% headline only describes your bill if you happen to use exactly the old typical amount of energy. Three things break that:
1. Your usage isn’t the assumption
A one-bed flat and a four-bed house both get the same headline percentage in the news, but their bills move by very different amounts in pounds. The cap change is a rate change — it scales with how much you use.
2. Gas and electricity moved very differently
This cap is a tale of two fuels: gas unit rates rose around 24%, electricity around 5%. A heavy gas user (old house, gas central heating) feels far more than the blended 13%. An all-electric flat feels far less.
3. The standing charge is fixed regardless of usage
You pay the daily standing charge whether you use anything or not. For a low-usage home it’s a big share of the bill, so a percentage quoted on the total can be misleading either way.
Put simply: the 13% is a fair description of the rate increase. The £22 is a fair description of what a “typical” modern home now pays. Neither is a description of your bill — only your own usage can tell you that.
How to check what your own bill actually does
You don’t need the national average. You need three numbers off your own bill. Find your latest annual statement (or a recent bill that shows your annual usage) and look for:
- Your annual usage — the number of units (kWh) you used over the year, for each fuel.
- Your unit rate — what you pay per unit (in pence per kWh), for each fuel.
- Your standing charge — the daily fixed charge (pence per day), for each fuel.
Then do the same sum Ofgem does, but with your numbers instead of the TDCV:
+ (standing charge × 365)
Work it out at today’s rates, then again at the July rates (electricity +5%, gas +24%). The difference is your rise — in pounds, not a national percentage. For many low-to-average users it’s a good deal smaller than the headline suggests; for heavy gas users it can be larger.
If digging the figures out of a statement sounds like work, that’s exactly what BillLuma is for — upload your bill and we read those numbers for you, then show your real before-and-after in plain English.
Skip the maths — check your actual bill
Upload your bill and we’ll tell you what the July cap does to your usage — not a national average. Your bill is deleted the moment we’re done reading it.
Check my billWhat this does not mean
We’re not saying energy is getting cheaper, or that the headline is wrong. The cap rates genuinely rose. If your usage stays the same as last year, you will pay more — the rate increase is real and lands on every unit you use.
The near-flat £22 figure only holds for a home that uses the new, lower typical amount. If your usage hasn’t fallen to match the new assumption, your bill rises closer to the headline. The point isn’t that the rise vanishes — it’s that a single national percentage can’t tell you what happens to your bill. Only your own usage can.
Sources & figures
- Ofgem price cap announcement, 27 May 2026. Cap effective 1 July–30 September 2026. Headline typical dual-fuel direct-debit bill: £1,641 → £1,862 (+13%, ~£18/month) on the previous TDCV.
- Ofgem revised TDCV (same announcement). New typical-home assumption is ~7% lower for electricity and ~17% lower for gas. Applying the new rates to the new TDCV gives an official new typical bill of £1,663 (+£22/year vs today).
- The £199 gap between £1,862 and £1,663 is the effect of the consumption-baseline change alone, not a change to cap rates.
- Per-fuel rate changes: electricity unit rates ~+5%, gas unit rates ~+24%. Per-kWh figures are derived from Ofgem’s announced percentages and will be refined when Ofgem publishes the full resource pack. See our methodology.
Figures are based on Ofgem’s confirmed July 2026 price cap, announced 27 May 2026, and on Ofgem’s revised Typical Domestic Consumption Values published alongside it. Per-kWh figures are derived from Ofgem’s announced percentage changes and will be refined when the resource pack publishes exact rates. BillLuma is not affiliated with Ofgem or any energy supplier. We earn a small commission if you switch — it doesn’t affect our advice.